Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
5.8 miles South-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles South-East of Potter Valley
39.2588°N, 123.0424°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 03:55:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
58h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.0 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3bea167a1cdd76b2f7ca1e5ae6755992ae39b44bce32e79b377a82122ac369d1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-39.26--123.04-20260502T0355
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.