Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
12.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2924°N, 119.0504°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 04:04:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
82h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M3.38 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
98c01d252f8462810f802e8f464ee21632e1e997d55af02fd7ea40c8a59d2d8e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-39.29--119.05-20260503T0404
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.