Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
9.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3331°N, 119.0838°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 05:32:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
107h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
2.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c25a28bfc05b3abd0942fce17945056ca74d0e2a475df6fc6e127f0105b8446a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-39.33--119.08-20260504T0532
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.