Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
42.4 miles South-West of Carlin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
42.4 miles South-West of Carlin
40.1632°N, 116.4587°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 08:45:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
62h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
187.7 km
87.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.14 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
5.8 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
743a053e1a7bc9ee27694de6618668a57a81d7e31ffa9c9bfc51b897e8429af2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-40.16--116.46-20260502T0845
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.