Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
39.5 miles South-East of Battle Mountain
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
39.5 miles South-East of Battle Mountain
40.1728°N, 116.5031°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 03:36:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
57h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
225.2 km
125.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.27 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
14.7 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 8.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
49507bd8f9a29b515abe768fcc2e11987889ff72f20795bcd8a7d909c64dfd48
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-40.17--116.50-20260502T0336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.