Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
28.4 miles North-West of Winnemucca
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.4 miles North-West of Winnemucca
41.2541°N, 118.1343°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 22:22:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
52h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
218.2 km
118.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 8.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4d9d4a5250d6aefad4d9502b7239a3f07db4cff04d3149c17ab84de161def0d3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_104707_pred-41.25--118.13-20260501T2222
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 17:47:10 PST
Source Batch
20260429_104707_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:41.547701+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.