Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
10.2 miles North of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.2 miles North of Soledad
36.5658°N, 121.2728°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of May 2026
May 21, 2026 17:11:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
525h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.07 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d765fabcca3b29809e3e27aa4eeecf332df21d3d58eec9875a0fa407a7784ab3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-36.57--121.27-20260521T1711
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.