Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
45.6 miles South-West of Bodega Bay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
45.6 miles South-West of Bodega Bay
37.7235°N, 123.3698°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 15:17:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
475h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.91
Predicted M3.41 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
8.5 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 0.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0830616030d14ac726a36ffec57ee7942da37d928175e9a76a7f773d43f49eaf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-37.72--123.37-20260519T1517
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.