Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
19.0 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.0 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4456°N, 116.4881°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 06:57:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
563h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
309.3 km
209.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.47
Predicted M3.17 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
12.1 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4439243919e6404745f52e8f6b6dd087a26311ee7d219859d43d407a974bd3aa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-38.45--116.49-20260523T0657
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.