Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
5.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7520°N, 122.8165°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 05:47:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
586h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
36.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.48
Predicted M3.48 vs actual M2.0
- 0.48 over limit
Depth Error
15.4 km
Pred. 8.2 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a132d11d666adcfdc4997f92976dd464fa031f67d9a960849dd2b1d495215710
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-38.75--122.82-20260524T0547
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.