Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.9 miles North of Yerington
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.9 miles North of Yerington
39.1880°N, 119.1510°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 19:53:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
456h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
11.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.79
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 9.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a66dac5836548eb6b30139f8616a9f680ca80e1e94aaded9b46a401e85fb3a70
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-39.19--119.15-20260518T1953
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.