Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
14.5 miles South-West of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles South-West of Fallon
39.3235°N, 118.9669°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 00:49:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
389h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
14.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.61
Predicted M3.31 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
43e2d7d115a3256184a5f7c215f52452ca23211385543552cb3318e79dfd7ddd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-39.32--118.97-20260516T0049
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.