Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
15.1 miles West of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.1 miles West of Empire
40.5494°N, 119.6301°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 19:17:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
479h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
146.0 km
46.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
26.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 10.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7aee2d578b62af59586b1735ad5376db8bc4527449393c0c385a2477fbdc6940
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-40.55--119.63-20260519T1917
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.