Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
25.5 miles South-West of Tuscarora
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.5 miles South-West of Tuscarora
41.0263°N, 116.5776°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 08:26:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1045h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
21.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
80.5 h
44.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.70
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.9 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7e0b60e91b0afa402c5a1b77a8e604f886c6b97c1f75f1103b6daf3ebdf64579
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_122224_pred-41.03--116.58-20260612T0826
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 19:22:27 PST
Source Batch
20260429_122224_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:42.918844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.