Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
5.8 miles North-East of Burney
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles North-East of Burney
40.9266°N, 121.5652°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 00:00:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2499h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
66.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.39
Predicted M4.59 vs actual M2.2
- 1.39 over limit
Depth Error
20.4 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f3e96f824d84c932e4ee4b2b53dc17c5a60e8001d5feeeea630195730f187fd8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_130613_pred-40.93--121.57-20260812T0000
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 20:06:16 PST
Source Batch
20260429_130613_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:44.414698+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.