Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
2.7 miles South-East of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.7 miles South-East of Calipatria
33.0934°N, 115.4880°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 06:12:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
55h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1b2e12624a1b2d3a5a995ed9226e583d6c0d87b4e5d588a31f55b3d81ff6fe51
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-33.09--115.49-20260502T0612
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.