Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
8.6 miles South-West of Ludlow
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles South-West of Ludlow
34.6234°N, 116.2601°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 00:31:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
73h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
119.5 km
19.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
15.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M1.88 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.1 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 6.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e095b31641e9b85efd9865c90cc07b731700d2a3ffaba07803d5387d46f25429
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-34.62--116.26-20260503T0031
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.