Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
12.1 miles North-East of Greenfield
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.1 miles North-East of Greenfield
36.4529°N, 121.1011°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 02:12:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
75h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
14.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.11 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
15.3 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 5.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
de4430f4797e8c96f969228cd11c4ad5f693d8ff19dd6dadb7b1151b3cd25560
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-36.45--121.10-20260503T0212
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.