Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
7.5 miles North of Coaldale Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles North of Coaldale Junction
38.1248°N, 117.8410°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 18:15:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
67h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
23.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.38 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
16.1 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 9.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
219d8a0bb5f3037b863df6f7b2dd27f97d2f68df65d9f02df17a58cf508d4677
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-38.12--117.84-20260502T1815
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.