Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
6.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7633°N, 122.7982°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 20:47:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
69h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
3.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
9.9 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7426ae36a452222ab8a4d79983a20f89d1b8f8a73f6b245ae5181e3aef0f21b4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-38.76--122.80-20260502T2047
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.