Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
12.4 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.4 miles North of Clear Lake
39.2206°N, 122.8200°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 13:34:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
192.0 km
92.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
12.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M3.86 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 9.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4de522f4ce747c94f2a04c832a8ac95608fbb69844305544f236d3e8e24f51c6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-39.22--122.82-20260430T1334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.