Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
9.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.9 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2987°N, 119.1012°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 06:13:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
0.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.3 km
Pred. 8.4 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
68f3eecadcaf9f17567a8447b4fae71829bb7d41923c0743599088dd70f4cb71
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-39.30--119.10-20260430T0613
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.