Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
27.4 miles South of Hayfork
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.4 miles South of Hayfork
40.1665°N, 123.0701°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 23:23:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
72h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.33
Predicted M1.97 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.9 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 5.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
42437bee8be1ac4a0a0dce673d772907836a6e89c1c0176a7d480dd83f14940c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-40.17--123.07-20260502T2323
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.