Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
15.7 miles West of Gerlach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.7 miles West of Gerlach
40.6204°N, 119.6528°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 07:06:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
55h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
153.8 km
53.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
13.7 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 10.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b9a19fbb01e7b5d2442154f44f17c1f219b6688eb3e67e7012224214d0c213dd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_161050_pred-40.62--119.65-20260502T0706
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 29, 2026 23:10:53 PST
Source Batch
20260429_161050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:45.594794+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.