Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
0.8 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.8 miles South of Calexico
32.6682°N, 115.4962°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 12:34:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
539h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
28.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M3.0 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
846d1c9553be767c9967a880292628a58167c84f0a63eb39448fb8ac7d408d5e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-32.67--115.50-20260522T1234
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.