Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
51.8 miles West of Santa Cruz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
51.8 miles West of Santa Cruz
36.7846°N, 122.9384°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of June 2026
Jun 14, 2026 07:43:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1086h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
228.1 km
128.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M3.82 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
8.3 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 2.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d4df1d7a3ad0a8101ee1d63bd6e546d897ac0c8a678028a553adfb31964bda10
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-36.78--122.94-20260614T0743
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.