Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.0
7.2 miles North-West of Santa Cruz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles North-West of Santa Cruz
37.0662°N, 122.0911°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 01:41:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
624h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
85.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
24.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.81
Predicted M4.01 vs actual M2.2
- 0.81 over limit
Depth Error
21.8 km
Pred. 9.2 km vs actual 12.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0e2cec3233443f390f8702aad4e39ab13998693a82332ec7616bdb51ab654392
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-37.07--122.09-20260526T0141
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.