Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
9.7 miles East of Mina
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles East of Mina
38.3897°N, 117.9218°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 12:59:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1068h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
129.5 km
29.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.78
Predicted M3.18 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
15.0 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 8.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d3d34ef5a2deafdd87617207d7aa53bd80f3f20b7dbcf32e8ebbcc294aea7e56
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-38.39--117.92-20260613T1259
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.