Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
7.0 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3914°N, 122.6008°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 10:09:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1041h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
15.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
641bfbfa997d6b522db1d8f32f10e4412c3cf6cccd6cfe3762a97c40db5eaf5f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-38.39--122.60-20260612T1009
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.