Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
17.5 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.5 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4167°N, 116.5082°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 20:44:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
595h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
116.0 km
16.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 5.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
72a4173b845459d03faff43edc70c37db476e2ae602a9b33e97a29508125c18b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-38.42--116.51-20260524T2044
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.