Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
14.6 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.6 miles South-West of Nye
38.5065°N, 115.5608°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 19:08:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
570h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
352.4 km
252.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.73
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 2.3 km vs actual 8.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7a167d9b5276dacb7b3cc3b9fa4f300c43a8d72b22f3f125504280f9c4b638a9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-38.51--115.56-20260523T1908
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.