Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
9.8 miles West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.8 miles West of Mendocino
39.3369°N, 123.9784°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 03:01:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
290h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 5.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
791f7498ddf8f96f87e07be4dd1d4a0bc585c1c2542ee28156a521eea08ad44e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_174430_pred-39.34--123.98-20260512T0301
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 00:44:33 PST
Source Batch
20260429_174430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:46.991643+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.