Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
7.7 miles North of China Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles North of China Lake
35.7738°N, 117.6839°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of July 2026
Jul 12, 2026 08:15:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1758h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
54.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
32.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.12
Predicted M5.32 vs actual M4.2
- 0.12 over limit
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 10.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3f36362fd8e0487eab4bf833b0c851b9a827b7b79118b2e2891099819ffdd975
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_182828_pred-35.77--117.68-20260712T0815
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 01:28:31 PST
Source Batch
20260429_182828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:48.425519+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.