Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.9
10.8 miles South-West of Pearsonville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.8 miles South-West of Pearsonville
35.8285°N, 118.0885°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 11:43:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
226h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
61.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.76
Predicted M4.86 vs actual M2.1
- 1.76 over limit
Depth Error
22.1 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
293b5dcc63a95b90a6d07ba1fa20bb41a360e355f16d8dac05188781b3990545
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_182828_pred-35.83--118.09-20260509T1143
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 01:28:31 PST
Source Batch
20260429_182828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:48.425519+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.