Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
3.6 miles West of Hat Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles West of Hat Creek
40.8133°N, 121.5688°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 00:00:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2494h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
71.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.29
Predicted M4.59 vs actual M2.3
- 1.29 over limit
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 14.9 km vs actual 5.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a8e996e462628c5d024a3078f61a07d7424410131a8c1fcd87fad5d23ad468e3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_182828_pred-40.81--121.57-20260812T0000
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 01:28:31 PST
Source Batch
20260429_182828_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:48.425519+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.