Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
6.6 miles South-East of Cuyama
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles South-East of Cuyama
34.8495°N, 119.5626°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 00:00:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M2.39 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
9.4 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 4.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
662fd23faa2797dbf65bb0437471a1319cb5b2dcba2af09ae4281e00e0354197
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-34.85--119.56-20260501T0000
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.