Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
19.4 miles North of Coalinga
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.4 miles North of Coalinga
36.4165°N, 120.4148°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 11:38:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
78h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
5.4 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 0.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d95e0dec9273c754900f15f1fcc01907c364bb175da1f3bb0b0c458f0c6b39c5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-36.42--120.41-20260503T1138
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.