Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
8.6 miles South-West of Mercury
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.6 miles South-West of Mercury
36.5713°N, 116.0818°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 04:51:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.38 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
6.3 km
Pred. 1.6 km vs actual 4.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2646b4ed860f13319aad8801473c7a0f144c260ff078d5fdd8d45ba035443da9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-36.57--116.08-20260430T0451
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.