Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
2.1 miles North-West of Blair Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.1 miles North-West of Blair Junction
38.0096°N, 118.1526°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 00:06:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
19h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
165.8 km
65.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
8.7 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
96da891a9df70e115e2d13b168d4c29608bbd05383e99a53ec9371d8fea41421
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-38.01--118.15-20260501T0006
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.