Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.3 miles South of Ruth
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South of Ruth
39.2186°N, 114.9852°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 02:34:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
235.5 km
135.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.55 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
9.9 km
Pred. 5.2 km vs actual 4.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
82a78f15069f47cc5f03ecfb69d076aab5cd0740886946a930135a48035546b0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-39.22--114.99-20260430T0234
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.