Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
23.2 miles South-East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.2 miles South-East of Austin
39.2755°N, 116.7412°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 19:25:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
86h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
4.8 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1846ee30f2b049b5444bfc3ef2b06834ee4daff266c4ddabbbfd81ec726cebe9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-39.28--116.74-20260503T1925
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.