Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
9.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2896°N, 119.1200°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 08:15:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.1 km
Pred. 2.2 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2af612e7596403b6854b5cb7a150c3f8e8bef2edd1e4cab7f4ecf4682fe37e62
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-39.29--119.12-20260430T0815
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.