Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
14.5 miles West of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles West of Empire
40.5460°N, 119.6192°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 19:48:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
39h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
143.4 km
43.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
1.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.17 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.9 km
Pred. 9.2 km vs actual 7.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6c52985199f4a35d5fb879a2a50ab472aa98d0ce48144edffe0644e0a4beaeeb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_214832_pred-40.55--119.62-20260501T1948
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 04:48:35 PST
Source Batch
20260429_214832_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:49.562319+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.