Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
0.9 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.9 miles South-East of Calexico
32.6682°N, 115.4896°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of May 2026
May 22, 2026 12:34:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
534h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
28.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M3.0 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
da0f94c9eb6efe1956245fde85ce15417b039a34e5351e498b17143507db95a8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-32.67--115.49-20260522T1234
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.