Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
5.6 miles South-West of Hollister
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-West of Hollister
36.7874°N, 121.4612°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of June 2026
Jun 14, 2026 07:43:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1081h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
11.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.52
Predicted M3.82 vs actual M2.3
- 0.52 over limit
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
74433fb6cfedd4a7aa775b56843275c9b38c687ee020ad28ef193502990613a0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-36.79--121.46-20260614T0743
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.