Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
74.1 miles South-West of Sea Ranch
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
74.1 miles South-West of Sea Ranch
37.7435°N, 124.0252°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 04:58:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
550h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
176.0 km
76.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
9.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.97
Predicted M2.97 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.4 km
Pred. 2.2 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2f389264acc59e144225819e4c06061d13d7971a19e75661bb5e34b2fc20f677
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-37.74--124.03-20260523T0458
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.