Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.7 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.7 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3897°N, 122.6311°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of June 2026
Jun 13, 2026 12:59:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1062h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
51.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
19.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M3.18 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
8.3 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 2.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9b71af0dd69b3fc68361170c21694c02dd775f75e5f1a37ff9f4327af480c763
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-38.39--122.63-20260613T1259
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.