Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.5 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles South-East of Santa Rosa
38.3991°N, 122.6767°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of June 2026
Jun 12, 2026 10:09:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1036h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
21.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c51a7e7ef80871c7793bb21e68e8209c06bc203229d8373fb9533b418fda19f8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-38.40--122.68-20260612T1009
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.