Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
21.2 miles South-West of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.2 miles South-West of Nye
38.4063°N, 115.5919°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of May 2026
May 25, 2026 23:12:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
617h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
202.0 km
102.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
14.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M3.49 vs actual M3.8
Depth Error
13.0 km
Pred. 3.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6342b4205b8aa0c699d35d0a7da31bc6abb52f17abf7067067e51d4ea0995ed4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-38.41--115.59-20260525T2312
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.