Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
6.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7804°N, 122.8073°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of May 2026
May 26, 2026 10:17:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
628h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
79.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.37
Predicted M3.37 vs actual M2.0
- 0.37 over limit
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 6.2 km vs actual 6.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
25c1d4b18b267f93c6218d0ef00c99bde95cf6848f0f7223161b7ba8c0b7d3af
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260429_230510_pred-38.78--122.81-20260526T1017
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 30, 2026 06:05:14 PST
Source Batch
20260429_230510_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:50.940545+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.